The Change Mariner

Stampede of Diabetes as U.S. Races to Obesity

The New York Times:

The incidence of diabetes has been rising in recent years, in children as well as in adults. Considering only diagnosed cases in adults, the prevalence rose 40 percent in the 1990's, from 4.9 percent to 6.9 percent of adults. By 2050, unless current trends are reversed, experts predict a further increase of 165 percent.

Even more disturbing is a new estimate of the lifetime risk of developing diabetes among boys and girls born in the year 2000. An analysis published in October in The Journal of the American Medical Association by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts the following for those born in 2000:

- 32.8 percent of boys and 36.5 percent of girls will develop diabetes during their lifetimes.

- Among non-Hispanic blacks, 40.2 percent of boys and 49 percent of girls, and among Hispanics, 45.4 percent of boys and 52.5 percent of girls face the same fate.

- Among all those in whom diabetes is diagnosed at age 40, men will lose 11.6 years of life and 18.6 years of quality life and women will lose 14.3 years of life and 22 years of quality life as a result of the disease.