The Change Mariner

'Vanishing Youth' Already Impacting TV Ad Revenues

Forbes
... Newly issued ratings data showing that men aged 18 to 34 are watching less TV, amid sagging viewership overall, will put the onus on broadcasters to invest in riskier programming and fight harder for advertising, media experts said Tuesday.

Media buyers said some networks have already been offering "make-goods" -- free commercial time to advertisers who were promised bigger audiences -- which could total up to $300 million to $500 million this year.

"The loss is especially troubling to the networks because advertisers pay premiums to reach (young men)," said Jack Myers, editor of a media industry newsletter.

"The networks, just to stay even, will need to get higher prices next year. There's already a backlash against prices advertisers were paying this year, so it's going to be a very difficult negotiating period," he said.

... For their part, the networks downplayed the significance of the reported decline in male viewers aged 18 to 34.

CBS ratings chief David Poltrack said the Nielsen "white paper" confirmed that about half the drop-off fell within the range of normal year-to-year fluctuations.

"It doesn't look like any real change in lifestyle by young males or any real significant defection from the ranks of television viewers," Poltrack told Reuters

Poltrack said one explanation could be that young men, including those who live with their parents, watch more TV outside the home and beyond Nielsen's reach.

The head of ratings and research of NBC, Alan Wurtzel, agreed that the notion of the vanishing young male has turned out to be a myth.

"Nielsen has basically agreed that about half of this decline is not real.... It's a measurement issue," he said. "I just don't want anybody to feel that television has become irrelevant to a group of people when it just isn't true."

...Jon Swallen, director of media knowledge for Interpublic Group's Universal McCann agency, said the networks were caught in a bind between needing larger audiences while being averse to groundbreaking shows that cost more to develop.

"If programming becomes increasingly similar and undifferentiated ... the natural result for viewers is confusion, apathy and forsaking the television for something else," he said.