The Change Mariner

Internet, Video Game, DVD Use May Be Fueling Exodus of Young Male TV Viewer

TVWeek:

... Network executives witnessed as much as a 12 percent decline in persons using television levels for the men 18 to 34 demographic in the first few weeks, and as much as a 20 percent decline for men 18 to 24.

Nielsen recently sent its clients a memo that suggested the decline may be due to young men's playing video games, watching DVDs or using the Internet.

Now those numbers are starting to ease up. For example, usage dropped 7 percent vs. a year before for the men 18 to 34 demographic for Oct. 22-26.

Still, Mr. Loftus added, Nielsen is continuing to look at data, including analyzing young male viewing habits in the sample this year vs. a year ago. "They are certainly entitled to an explanation," he said of Nielsen subscribers.

David Poltrack, executive VP of research for CBS, is concerned but feels the numbers will get back to normal. "These drops are at unprecedented levels. But most likely it's some form of anomaly that should correct itself," he said.

Fox, for one, is still worried. In a press release last week discussing the premiere of its valuable show "24," it said, "The five-net share comparison for 9-10 p.m. last night [Tuesday] vs. comparable levels against last year's "24" premiere reflects sharp declines among audience in key demos."

The company notes that adults 18 to 34 earned a 30 share vs. 37 share the year before; teens 12 to 17 posted a 28 share vs. 32 share; and men 18 to 34 had a 24 share vs. 34 share.

Mr. Poltrack dismissed the argument that the drop is due to a lack of interest in current programming or that too many shows are aimed at female viewers. "That argument doesn't hold," he said. "We first saw a decline in April and May. Then in mid-August a big decline before the new season started."

Mr. Poltrack said he's asked Nielsen to look at whether young male college students who are moving from home to college for the start of the new school year might have something to do with the decline.

Advertisers so far have taken a wait-and-see attitude. If there is a sustained drop in the size of the audience, it could translate into an eventual reduction of many millions of dollars in advertising sales. Some advertisers said they are especially interested in the ratings during "sweeps," when the networks no longer face disruption from baseball and are rolling out their best shows.

"It's a concern, but we want to give it another week or two to see if any patterns change once schedules get more stable," said Andrew Donchin, senior VP of national broadcast for Carat North America, New York. "We are concerned how much is real and how much comes from the [change in the ratings] sample."

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