The Change Mariner

Pentagon to start futures market for terror attacks

SF Chronicle

It sounds jaw-droppingly callous, not to mention absurd: An Internet gambling parlor, sponsored by the U.S. government, on politics in the Middle East. Anyone, from Osama bin Laden to your grandmother, can bet over the Web on such questions as whether Yasser Arafat will be assassinated or Turkey's government will be overthrown.

If the bettors are right, they'll win money; if they're wrong, they'll lose their wagers. The site itself will keep numerical tallies of the current "odds" for various events.

But experts say the DARPA-backed Policy Analysis Market (www.policyanalysismarket.org) is based on a legitimate theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis, that has a proven track record in predicting outcomes. Basically, the idea is that the collective consciousness is smarter than any single person. By forcing people to put their money where their mouth is, the wagers help weed out know-nothings and give more weight to the opinions of those in the know

Perhaps this application is consistent with the Adminstration's contract killings, personalized/open warefare and transition of the Middle East to a market economy. See Change RE: Military Transformation - NMW

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